The Reserve Bank’s composite leading business cycle indicator rose 1.1% in August 2026, it said on Tuesday, as six of its ten available components improved and four fell.
The index reached 119.6 (2019 = 100), from 118.3 in July. The bank said the two largest positive contributors were faster six-month growth in real M1 money supply, which added 0.72 percentage points, and more approved building plans for flats, townhouses and houses larger than 80m², which added 0.41 points. A commodity price index for South Africa’s main export commodities, measured in US dollars, added 0.34 points.
Two components pulled the other way. Slower six-month growth in job advertisements in the Sunday Times and Pnet took off 0.28 points, and slower growth in new passenger vehicle sales took off 0.12 points. Manufacturers’ domestic orders and the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index also fell, by 0.07 and 0.04 points. The gross operating surplus series was unavailable.
Growth over 12 months has cooled. The leading indicator was 1.9% higher than in August 2025, down from 2.3% in July and 6.2% in March.
The Reserve Bank publishes two other measures with a one-month lag. The coincident indicator, which reflects current activity, rose 0.6% in July to 95.0. It was helped by higher real wholesale, retail and motor trade sales and a higher industrial production index. Over 12 months it was still 0.8% lower. The lagging indicator fell 0.4% in July to 106.1, which is 0.9% lower than a year earlier.
Source: South African Reserve Bank, October 2026 release (index, 2019 = 100). Chart: Rand Desk
The monthly path this year has been uneven. The leading indicator jumped 2.2% in March, fell 1.2% in April, edged up 0.4% in May and then fell in both June and July. August is the first monthly gain since May, and the index is still below the 121.5 it reached in March.
The coincident indicator has barely moved this year, from 95.0 in December to 95.0 in July, after dipping to 94.4 in June. The lagging indicator has gone from 105.2 to 106.1 over the same period.
The bank cautioned that the indicators are revised continuously as the underlying data are revised. The release is a signal of direction, not a forecast of growth.
Other recent releases: the IMF lowered its 2026 growth forecast for South Africa this month, the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement cut the Treasury’s own growth forecast. Consumer inflation rose to 4.5% in September on higher fuel prices.
The Reserve Bank’s next release of the indicators is on 24 November 2026 at 09:00.
