Treasury’s media statements between 14 November 2025 and 8 June 2026 record where Fitch, S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s rate the South African government and what each agency cited. This page sets those statements out. Later agency decisions and the 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement are not covered.

Where the three agencies stand

Treasury said all three rate South Africa at BB or Ba2, which Treasury describes as two levels below investment grade. S&P also rates the government’s rand borrowing separately, at BB+.

In June 2026 Treasury said a positive outlook, which S&P and Moody’s both hold, indicates the agency could upgrade within 12 to 18 months. Fitch’s outlook is stable.

What the agencies cited

Treasury’s account of the Fitch decision lists the shift from primary deficits to widening primary surpluses, improved revenue collection and disciplined spending. A primary surplus means revenue exceeds spending before interest on debt.

Fitch also cited the long average maturity of government debt, at over 10 years, the low share of debt in foreign currency, and reforms in energy and logistics.

S&P’s November 2025 upgrade reflected better growth and fiscal trends and lower contingent liabilities tied to Eskom, Treasury reported. In May 2026, S&P expected real GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026 and an average of 1.7% from 2027 to 2029, as Treasury summarised it.

Moody’s, in its May 2026 decision as Treasury described it, expects the primary surplus to rise to around 2% in 2028 and real GDP growth to reach around 2% by then. It expects a gradual decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio.

Borrowing costs

Pieterse said in June 2026 that improved ratings “help to lower borrowing costs for government, businesses and households”.

What the outlooks depend on

According to Treasury, S&P’s positive outlook leaves room for a better fiscal position and a stabilised debt ratio. S&P attaches two conditions: consolidation must continue, and the current energy-price shock must ease.

Global ratings have gone the other way, according to Treasury. As at 29 May 2026, S&P’s ratings on 23 sovereigns had been hit since the Middle East conflict began in late February, including 14 investment-grade ones. South Africa and Italy were then the only G20 countries on a positive outlook from S&P.

The fiscal anchor

Treasury said in May 2026 that it was developing a principles-based fiscal anchor. In June its Director-General said details were expected in the 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (how the MTBPS works).