Debt now peaks at 74.6% of GDP in 2025/26, National Treasury said on Thursday. The 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) had put the peak at 78.4%.

The cause is Statistics South Africa’s 2026 rebasing and benchmarking of GDP, announced on 29 October. Treasury said the exercise lifted the measured level of nominal GDP by 5.1%, or R393 billion. Treasury described the update to its ratios as a mechanical adjustment. The revised peak is 3.8 percentage points below the MTBPS figure.

The other ratios shifted in the same direction. For 2026/27 the main budget deficit is 3.5% of GDP, where the MTBPS showed 3.7%. The primary surplus is 1.6% of GDP this year against 1.7% before. In 2029/30 it reaches 2.8%, down from 2.9%.

On Treasury’s new numbers, debt to GDP falls under 70% in 2032/33, one year sooner than the MTBPS projected. Over the medium term the consolidated deficit narrows by an average 0.2 percentage points of GDP, including in the current year. The main budget primary surplus is revised down by an average 0.1 points.

Treasury said the new ratios rest only on the changed GDP figures, according to SAnews, the government news agency. None of the government’s own revenue, spending or debt projections were altered in the recalculation.

Treasury's fiscal ratios, MTBPS against revised GDP

MTBPS (2026)Revised GDP

Debt peak, 2025/26Debt peak, 2025/26: MTBPS (2026): 78.4% of GDP78.4% of GDPDebt peak, 2025/26: Revised GDP: 74.6% of GDP74.6% of GDPDeficit, 2026/27Deficit, 2026/27: MTBPS (2026): 3.7% of GDP3.7% of GDPDeficit, 2026/27: Revised GDP: 3.5% of GDP3.5% of GDPPrimary surplus, 2026/27Primary surplus, 2026/27: MTBPS (2026): 1.7% of GDP1.7% of GDPPrimary surplus, 2026/27: Revised GDP: 1.6% of GDP1.6% of GDP
Debt peak, 2025/26Debt peak, 2025/26: MTBPS (2026): 78.4% of GDP78.4% of GDPDebt peak, 2025/26: Revised GDP: 74.6% of GDP74.6% of GDPDeficit, 2026/27Deficit, 2026/27: MTBPS (2026): 3.7% of GDP3.7% of GDPDeficit, 2026/27: Revised GDP: 3.5% of GDP3.5% of GDPPrimary surplus, 2026/27Primary surplus, 2026/27: MTBPS (2026): 1.7% of GDP1.7% of GDPPrimary surplus, 2026/27: Revised GDP: 1.6% of GDP1.6% of GDP

Source: National Treasury statement, 5 November 2026. Chart: Rand Desk

Treasury’s reasoning is arithmetic. A ratio with GDP on the bottom line shrinks when GDP is measured higher, so the debt, deficit and surplus ratios all move even though the rand amounts behind them are as the MTBPS set them out. The deficit and debt ratios fall, while the primary surplus ratio dips slightly.

Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse said the updated calculations “confirm that government continues to achieve its fiscal targets”. He said South Africa is seeing benefits “in lower borrowing costs and a stronger foundation for investment and growth”. The statement gives no figure for any borrowing saving, and we have not been able to open Stats SA’s own release, so the 5.1% and R393 billion are Treasury’s figures.

Treasury noted that Stats SA benchmarks the economy every five years, that earlier rounds have often lifted the estimated size of GDP, and that they have seldom shifted growth rates much. The latest round is meant to capture major changes in how the economy is built up. Our MTBPS story sets out the original deficit and debt path. The 2027 Budget will carry updated economic forecasts and fiscal projections, Treasury said.